My Crystal Ball: Forecasting Our 2019 Real Estate Market
Forecasting Our 2019 Real Estate Market
Most everyone wants to know what’s going to happen in the real estate market for years to come. First up is what’s 2019 looking like. While I don’t actually have a crystal ball (shocking, I know), here are my 2019 predictions based on what’s happening locally and globally, and most importantly, from our first hand experiences in the marketplace:
1. Understanding the fundamental shift in the market
This is very tough to write and even harder to endure but many sellers have to accept the reality that the buyer’s market is here to stay. While seller’s made small increments to their sales price in 2018, this strategy didn’t really work and isn’t likely to work. Sellers have to come to terms that they may take a loss on their home and they may have to sell for substantially less than they paid for it.
2. Slow and steady
Despite being a buyer’s market that doesn’t mean the bottom is falling out. People have begun throwing around terms like “bubble” and “recession.” Fun fact: recession doesn’t mean a massive real estate sink hole. 4 out of the 6 last economic recessions actually resulted in appreciation of real estate. Instead of assuming prices will bottom up, buyers should take advantage of the current climate.
3. The truth about interest rates
Yes, interest rates have ticked up a bit. But after intending on hiking rates nearly 3 times in 2019 the Fed has now aggressively backed off that statement. We immediately saw a rate drop and there has been rate steadiness over the last few months. I anticipate rates to creep up a bit in 2019 but still at historical lows. Let’s not forget that before the last crash interest rates had ticked up to an average of 6.41% (2007) so we are a long ways off from that which still empowers buyers and keeps the market active.
4. City Burbs for the win
Yes, Manhattan will always be the mecca but if the last 10 years have shown us anything it’s that the other boroughs have clout, duh, Brooklyn, duh. Forgetting Long Island City in Queens (I think the Amazon move is wildly overblown), neighborhoods like Astoria (22% median sales price growth) and Bay Ridge (102% median sales price growth!!) are attracting people with affordability and the ability to still be a city resident. Until we see these emerging areas slow, it gives me confidence that people still want to live in the city!
Want to see what the crystal ball says about your home value in 2019?